Black swan theory

Vi no wikipedia um artigo sobre "Black swan theory", que trata das improbabilidades de eventos com alto impacto acontecerem e como lidar com o risco desses eventos. O evento raro de haver cisnes pretos qd se dizia que não havia só pode ser superado pelo de cisnes que trocam de companheiro/a . Nota mental, nunca dizer que um cisne não pode fazer ou ser X, os limites da realidade não se aplicam aos cisnes :P

Ficam tb aqui uns concelhos que o Sr. do livro recomenda para reduzir risco, mais aplicados a seguradoras ou governos.



1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
4. Do not let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to "restore confidence".
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible "expert" advice for their retirement.
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs.